These are the bellwether counties. Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.). Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! The pattern has become clear between the last two presidential elections and governor's race early results from rural counties show Republicans up, but Northern Virginia counties, especially Fairfax, have more than made up the difference. there are signs that the progress he made there in 2016 winning the county by about 1.5 percentage points after Obama carried it by 16 points . Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Furthermore, consider the fact that bellwethers dont just have a random 50% chance at winning we should expect them to have a better than 50% chance of getting it right. 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. Whether or not these less diverse, industry-dependent communities can regain their bellwether status in four years' time remains to be seen. It came close to reflecting the statewide vote in 2012. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. Latest voter registration totals: 937,155 No party registration. Find a coin, and flip it, and see how long it takes to (just) get 10 heads or 10 tails in a row. By Randy Yeip and Stuart A. Thompson. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. Combinedwith general population growth, and this election had 27 million more participants. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election: To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include modern bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. Team up with others in your region, and help out by Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008. We believe this was a mistake. In 2012, it had nearly half a million more voters in it than every other county in the state combined. And this is the state with the highest share of whites with college degrees in the country. If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. Website Updates Paused However, its bellwether status is by no means guaranteed in future elections. 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257. To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. Other counties to watch: Perhaps no state more starkly displays the broader rural-urban divide in this country than Virginia. It almost became religious.". Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. Keep in mind that if we started the attrition from the 1980 election, there would still be 19 counties standing after the 2016 election. Will they vote for the winner in 2016? . What are your thoughts on this article? That'sanother reason results of the contests might not have lined up. Here's why. But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. Ron Elving . Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? [How The Frost Belt And Sun Belt Illustrate The Complexity Of Americas Urban-Rural Divide]. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 480,926Republicans, 323,870Unaffiliated: 229,298Others: 65,281. No county more closely reflected Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012 than Monroe, home to Key West and the rest of the Keys. In 2020, a single. It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. This one of 99 counties made up 16 percent of Obama's total vote in 2012. Split-Ticket Voters Helped Biden, Republicans in Nebraska, Maine, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. who in 2016 won Caswell and other rural counties in North Carolina by tapping those feelings of abandonment. Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. Other counties to watch: Denver suburbs Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson. As the country's demographics shift and the rural-urban divide becomes more pronounced, the chances appear slim. ET. Here is a look at the bellwether counties for the 2020 presidential race. It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. This year with Mr Trump winning the county handily, not only did Vigo County Republicans keep their seats, a "red tide" similar to what transpired in Ottawa and Valencia counties saw Republican members take positions such as county judge, treasurer, clerk and recorder. This website merely reports on substantial allegations made by well-known public figures, elected officials, members of congress, and their legal teams, and will correct errors when notified. Feel free to forward a link to your elected officials as well. | AP Photo, By Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney and Daniel Strauss. Since 1960, Democrats have won Rockingham County only three times. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 51%-49% - 2008: Obama 50%-49%. All Rights Reserved. "They followed through the whole four years. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 316,586Republicans: 258,725No Party Affiliation: 206,457Others: 22,695. Trump also needs to drive up margins in Republican-leaning Western counties like Kent (Grand Rapids) and Ottawa (on the shores of Lake Michigan). Stephen Starr is an Irish journalist and author who reported from the Middle East for a decade before moving to Ohio in 2018. Like Jefferson (but slightly more populous), Arapahoe was once a GOP stronghold that voted for Obama twice. In their . (Needless to say that if the tables were reversed, we would hear no end of the significance of bellwether counties in the media.). They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? Once you have found all the results and looked at the trends, remember, these counties are the best counties at predicting an election outcome! But its been a nail-biter in the past four presidential elections. Subscribe to breaking updates This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. If it's close here, Georgia could be in play. We tried to pick counties that had a large enough population to matter some or if they just had a knack for picking that statewide winner. It has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 2000. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud or other supposed issues with the election. Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. None of them impacts the legitimacy of the presidential election. If there's a place to watch in the state that could tip it toward Clinton is college towns like Ogden in Weber County, home to Weber State. The Milwaukee suburb went for Obama by just 3 points in 2012, but went for George W. Bush in 2004 when Wisconsin was the closest state of that election, though it went for Democrat John Kerry. These counties turned out to vote strongly for the Democrat party in 2008, so they are the most likely to swing back to the Democrat party in 2020. Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via We welcome any suggestions and content contibutions with credible references that help others understand the key election integrity issues. November 8, 2016 9:29 AM ET. It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Ottawa County wasn't the only swing county to get the outcome wrong this time around. Other counties to watch: Nowhere is more important than Polk (Des Moines). Nobody forgot about politics.". They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. A few counties in America are known as the "bellwether counties": Those locations that always end up voting for the candidate who ultimately wins in the presidential election. That's 14 in a row. The magnitude of the gap (or difference) is an indicator of the strength of the change in sentiment. Of course, bellwethers are bellwethers until they aren't. Cable news loves to point to Vigo County, Indiana on election night coverage because Indiana is one of the first two states to close its polls and it has . So, for our purposes, a swing county would have voted as follows: There are 80 such counties. According to an analysis of bellwether states and counties by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Vigo County, Indiana is the most prominent bellwether of presidential. Or, if you dont have enough time, how many of the top 10 switch counties, which overwhelmingly voted Democrat in 2008 (with a percentage Democrat vote over 58% ! Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. Warren and Henry Counties appear to be the least swingy of those counties from 2008 to 2012. 3. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . You can find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. Here are the concepts we have established so far: This is just the beginning. The odds of 21 counties out of 22 missing the mark is extremely remote! Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. In the past, says Mrs Day-Baker, the presence of conservative Democrats and split-ticket voting - choosing a Republican nominee for president but Democratic Party candidates as local representatives, or vice versa - were both commonplace. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. 9. But both are worth watching. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. Contributors wanted There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. ), You can find the answers to the above questions yourself by searching this site: politico.com/2020-election/results He will need to cut into Clintons advantage here in North Carolinas second-most populous county since Clinton is likely to roll up the score in Democratic Mecklenburg County (Charlotte). Clinton is counting on running up big numbers in the city of Pittsburgh to offset any gains Trump may make in the suburbs, and in the more conservative surrounding southwestern Pennsylvania counties, including Westmoreland County. In fact, according to David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, compared to 1,096 counties that fit that description in 1992. Other counties to watch: Counties where Clinton has to drive up the score include Bexar (San Antonio), Hidalgo (McAllen) and Travis (Austin). We relaxed the constraint by introducing the concept of a swing county, i.e. But there was only one county Clallam, Washington which voted Democrat. The website will remain online for the foreseeable future, but may not get any significant updates until the situation changes. If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. We further relaxed the constraint by introducing the switch county. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. Allegheny (Pittsburgh) is also key for Democrats. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020? Ultimately, they are simply 19 counties and this time, 18 of them voted for the candidate who lost the election. Have you looked at the results of these counties? In the 1990s, he says, Democrats ran for many local county positions unopposed. 10. Help raise awareness within your community about the lingering, unresolved issues with election integrity. Multiple factors, including higher turnout and population growth, contributed to the fact that both Biden and Trump totaledmore votes than Obama. Profiled by BBC News weeks before the 2020 election, locals said voters' political identities weren't always defined in strict party terms and that people would regularly pivot between parties from one election cycle to the next. Relatively few counties across the nation switched party support in 2012, but Rockingham was one of them, flipping from Obama in 2008 to Romney. Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . (Biden, for example, won over 70%of the vote in Los Angeles County. Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. Hamilton is ringed by heavily Republican Butler, Warren and Clermont counties, and it shares a border with Indiana, which is giving hope to GOP officials who think Trumps running mate, Indiana Gov. BELLWETHER, a documentary web-series, will cover the 2016 presidential election through the eyes and experiences of voters in Terre Haute and Vigo County, the most consistently accurate "bellwether" in the nation. As weve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can be suddenly ended thanks to Americas continually evolving political and demographic trends. In fact, of the 19 pivot counties across America to correctly pick the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, only one - Clallam County in Washington state - saw a majority back Joe Biden for president. Side note Could the Florida Keys tell us who wins? But those states represent just 29, 18and six electoral votes, respectively. Really stop reading. The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. ), Fact check: Biden won the most total votes and the fewest total counties of any president-elect. Arapahoe County. The county narrowly voted for Bush in 2000 but has gone Democratic in the three presidential elections since then, though never by more than 52 percent. We wanted to provide an easy-to-use guide of which counties to keep tabs on that could tell you how states might vote that are crucial to the election. Watauga has gone for. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. That said, they will look to get out as many voters as they can here to help compensate for expected losses in other northern parts of the state. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 57%-41% - 2008: McCain 55%-44%. (subject to censorship). Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. With such overwhelming Democrat support in 2008, one can only surmise that ALL these 25 counties would have switched back to the Democrat party in 2020. Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Second, the meme includes the number of counties each candidate won Obama at 873, Trump at 2,497 and Biden at 477. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. Clinton will win Democratic Clark County, the states population hub and home to Las Vegas. Potential canaries in the coal mine, aside from Montgomery, include Wood, south of Toledo, and Stark, home to Canton and the pro-football Hall of Fame in northeastern Ohio. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. But it's also not unprecedented. a county which has voted Republican in 2004, but swung to the Democrat party in 2008 and then back to the Republican party in 2016. It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? A switch county is our name for a county that happens to vote for the winning party whenever there is a change of parties, ignoring how they voted for the incumbent. Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. Georgia (16 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. The Art Of The Vote: Who Designs The Ballots We Cast. The best bellwether counties will consistently vote more than 50% for the winning party. Lets introduce a new concept: the quality of prediction. The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. Read about our approach to external linking. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Enter Donald Trump. These counties could play an . This website summarizes the major findings in the 1218 months following the Nov 2020 election. Now, Democrats have to drive up the margin in this populous, central North Carolina county. Mike Pence, could marshal his supporters to cross the border and provide support. We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! Hillary Clinton speaks during a rally at the Abraham Lincoln High School on Jan. 31 in Des Moines, Iowa. More: Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election. Racine County2016 primary winners: Sanders, Cruz, Latest voter registration totals: 113,599No party registration. Ventura County, California - two misses since 1920 (in 1976 and 2016). "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. Both Clinton and Trump need to turn out their bases in Fulton (Atlanta). Ryan Matsumoto is a contributing analyst for Inside Elections. This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas. Take the time to ponder and realize that this is no mean feat! Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Click here, for more. Green Bays Brown County voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, then Barack Obama in 2008, then flipped to Mitt Romney in 2012. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. Want to dive deeper? The Biden campaign has run ads in the Toledo broadcast market, which conveniently covers part of Michigan, too. Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. These former bellwether counties are much whiter and less college-educated than the country as a whole. But its not just demographic trends driving the loss of bellwether status. While Trump won every county in the state in the GOP primary, he posted his best result in Luzerne 77 percent. We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. This sizable Cincinnati suburb has reflected the statewide margin in the last two presidential elections. It also backed Gov. If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. 3. Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. If the Republican percentage in 2020 is less than in 2016, it would clearly indicate a change in sentiment away from the Republican party, towards the Democrat party. Did they narrowly miss out on voting for the Democrat party in 2020? More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20.
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